The State of the Boston Red Sox

On April 24th, the Red Sox lost to the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards by a score of 10-3. It was the fourth loss in succession by the Red Sox, and their sixth loss in seven games. The Red Sox record stood at a miserable 9-17, after having lost eight of their first ten games of the season as well. That night, the upper management of the Red Sox (in particular President/CEO Sam Kennedy and Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow - with go ahead from ownership (John Henry and Tom Werner in particular) and Brian O'Halloran (Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations). However, it was not until the next day - after the Red Sox crushed the Orioles by a score of 17-1 and after Breslow and Kennedy had made their way down to Baltimore - that the axe actually fell. Alex Cora - who won the World Series in his first season with the Red Sox in 2018 - was dismissed for a second time (he was dismissed before the 2020 season due to his association with the 2017 Houston Astros sign stealing scandal before being rehired again in 2021). Along with Cora, 3 Hitting Coaches (Pete Fatse, Dillon Lawson, and Joe Cronin), 3rd Base coach (Kyle Hudson) and bench coach (Ramon Vazquez) were also dismissed with Game Planning/Run Prevention coach Jason Varitek being reassigned. [It should be noted that FSG did dismiss manager Joe Kerrigan during spring training in 2002 after acquiring the Red Sox.]

Unsurprisingly, there was a minor uproar amongst the Red Sox community regarding this dismissal - the first in-season dismissal since Jimy Williams was fires in 2001 and the first in-season dismissal of a manager during the New England Sports Ventures (now Fenway Sports Group) ownership. So, let's take a look at some of the uproar reasons.

1) The Ownership should sell the team - they are more interested in their other holdings.

Let us be very clear - FSG not only owns the Boston Red Sox (and Fenway Park and Fenway South - their spring training complex), but also Liverpool Football Club (and Anfield) (since 2010), The NHL Pittsburgh Penguins (since 2023), Nascar's RFK Racing (50% since 2007) and the PGA/TMRW Golf League's Boston Common Golf. In addition, they own 80% of New England Sports Network and 100% of SportsNet Pittsburgh. In addition to Fenway Sports Management, Fenway Sports Real Estate, and Fenway Music Company. So, there is a lot on the plate.

Of course, John Henry is not George Steinbrenner. Or Jerry Jones. John Henry (and the Ownership organization as a whole) try to put the right people in place to run their businesses. The Ownership also attempts to keep their spending in line with their revenues. That being said, according to Sportrac - the Red Sox are spending the 6th most in MLB on salaries this season (at $267 million for tax purposes). This does not feel like an ownership that is unwilling to spend funds. However, spending money is not - in and of itself - a way to guarantee anything. For example, the Toronto Blue Jays has a tax salary commitment of over $300 million. The Philadelphia Phillies (who also fired their manager) has a tax salary commitment of $313 million. The New York Mets have a tax salary commitment of over $382 million. All four teams are currently under .500. 

And, perhaps, we should mention the LA Dodgers. They have the top Tax Payroll this year of over $416 million. Now, they are unsurprisingly 2-time World Series Champions and are big favorites to make it a third straight this year. It sure feels like spending money is a useful thing in their case. The LA Dodgers are owned by a consortium which includes Todd Boehly as a 20% minority owner. Mr. Boehly was also the successful bidder (in another consortium called BlueCo) of the Premier League's Chelsea FC from Russian Oligarch Roman Abramovich. Since the purchase in 2022, Chelsea has hired 7 different managers and spent approximately $1.5 billion on 51 player transfers. While they did win the first expanded Fifa World Cup earlier this year, they are currently 9th in the Premier League table (with 2 games to play) and out of any European competition for next season. The team reportedly lost over $300 million in the 2024-2025 season Money does not - in and of itself - make a team a winner.

Beyond the financials - The Red Sox under the FSG ownership has, in fact, won 4 World Championships. Which, when contrasted with the previous Yawkey ownership (Tom followed by his wife Jean followed by the JRY Trust (under John Harrington) - went to 4 World Championships (losing all 4) over their 69 years of ownership. Feel free to be mad - but new ownership is not likely to be a panacea.

2) Why not Craig Breslow. He's crappy.

Maybe he is. Maybe he is not. It feels a bit early to make any real analysis of his reign. He is in his third season. History under the FSG regime (Ben Cherington, Dave Dombrowski, Chaim Bloom/Brian O'Halloran) says that this organization is going to give their top Baseball management at least 4 years. Given that Craig Breslow joined the Red Sox organization from the Chicago Cubs organization - where he had been hired and promoted by Theo Epstein (who, is now a part owner in FSG) - he is likely to get a certain level of rope.

3) Why now? And why only the non-pitching side of the equation?

In many ways, Alex Cora should be happy that he lasted as long as he had. Terry Francona was hired in 2004 - winning the World Series in his first season. He would go on to win the World Series again in 2007. His option of his contract was not picked up for 2012 after the Red Sox collapse (7-20 in September) of 2011.

John Farrell was hired as manager after the disastrous run of Bobby Valentine in 2012... immediately winning the World Series in 2013. There were ups and downs over the next few seasons, but he did make it to the playoffs in 2016 and 2017. He was subsequently fired after the 2017 season despite winning the AL East in 3 of his 5 seasons at the helm.

Alex Cora was brought in to be manager in 2018 and led the Red Sox not only to their 3rd consecutive AL East title, but to their best record of all time with 108 wins. And, of course, the World Series. The Red Sox lost 24 more games in 2019, failing to make the playoffs. He was then dismissed for the 2020 season before being rehired for the 2021 season. Alex made the playoffs in his return with a 92-win season. Which was followed by two last place seasons (78 wins a piece), an 81-win season, before getting back to the playoffs with an 89-win season last year. To be fair, that is a fairly mediocre record since his initial season. A bad start of the 2026 season just added to the case that maybe he was not the correct manager for this team.

As for why the offensive side of the ball but not the pitching? Well, the Red Sox (two week after the dismissal) are still fairly dismal offensively. They are third worst in MLB with a .667 OPS (.234/.314/.353) with the 5th fewest runs scored (155 runs). The hitting stats when the firing happened were fairly similar. They just have not been a good hitting team.

The pitching, on the other hand, has been OK if not better. They lead the majors in shutouts (6). While being generally in the middle of the pack in most other metrics (runs allowed, earned runs allowed,  WHIP, etc.) Which is not too far from where they were when Cora was dismissed either. However, beyond the fact that the Red Sox have had numerous injuries thus being forced to utilize Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett earlier than expected. 

They have also had a bad start from Garrett Crochet (whose current ERA is over 3 runs more than his career average (and nearly 4 runs more than last season) due to giving up 4 earned runs over 5 innings on April 1st, 5 runs over 5 innings on April 19th, and 10 earned runs (11 total) over 1 2/3 innings on April 13th. Currently on the DL, It feels unlikely that he will continue to pitch so terribly over the rest of the season.

Brayan Bello has also had an atrocious start to the season, with his 7.44 ERA over 4 runs more than his ERA last season (and 3 runs over his career average). Until his recent 7 inning psuedo-start on May 5th (one run allowed while pitching innings #2-8), he has had only one good pitching appearance all season (2 runs over 6 2/3 innings on April 12th). Every other appearance went less than 5 innings with at least 4 runs allowed. Much like Crochet (but on a lesser level), Brayan is not pitching at the level he is accustomed to.

In conclusion

The Red Sox have not been a good team this year. Largely, the hitting has been atrocious. Which hasn't gotten that much better since Alex Cora's dismissal - scoring more than 5 runs in a game once in 12 games (a 10-3 win 4 games ago) while scoring no runs or one run 3 times. However, the team is over .500 since the dismissal (7-5) while winning 4 of their last 5 games. The question of whether this was the right move or not cannot be made yet. We just don't have enough information. However, If Crochet comes back to pitch similar to last year and Brayan's last outing is a preview for his future this year... This year may not be as dim as it seems.

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